{"status":"complete","pollId":"044c168f-6d93-4d5c-b0b9-d629b3ea7320","createdAt":"2026-09-17T10:38:47.936Z","question":"Czy Rosja zaatakuję Polskę w ciągu najbliższych 5 lat?","questionClass":"forecast","resolutionHorizon":"2029-12-31","verdict":"W decydującej kwestii, jaką jest ryzyko ataku na Polskę, panel uznał bezpośredni konwencjonalny atak zbrojny za mało prawdopodobny, szacując jego ryzyko na średnio 18%. Na taki wynik wpłynęła wysoka skuteczność odstraszania NATO, oceniona na poziomie 3,9 w 5-stopniowej skali (gdzie 1 oznacza zupełny brak skuteczności, a 5 pełną skuteczność), a także przekonanie 98% rozmówców, że nie nastąpi ograniczenie obecności USA. Jednocześnie przy szacowaniu czasu odtworzenia sił Rosji, określonym średnio na 8,7 roku, panel podzielił się na dwa obozy, a wynik w tej kwestii zależy głównie od tego, który model pytaliśmy.","answer":"Jest mało prawdopodobne, aby Rosja zaatakowała Polskę w ciągu najbliższych 5 lat – panel ocenia prawdopodobieństwo takiego ataku średnio na 18%.","stance":"leaning_no","verdictConfidence":0.4825710227386222,"consensusIndex":0.7049749366005325,"drivers":["nato_deterrence_credibility","us_commitment_shift","most_likely_hostile_action","direct_attack_pl","russian_mil_reconstitution"],"subquestions":[{"id":"direct_attack_pl","type":"probability","prompt":"Jakie jest prawdopodobieństwo bezpośredniego, konwencjonalnego ataku zbrojnego Rosji na terytorium Polski w ciągu najbliższych 5 lat?","shortPrompt":"Czy Rosja dokona ataku na Polskę w ciągu 5 lat?","scale":{"kind":"percent"},"n":50,"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":18.463925007835492,"sd":4.905451834828863,"p10":15,"p50":20,"p90":25,"iqr":5,"histogram":[{"bin":"0–10","count":0},{"bin":"10–20","count":23.657808999999997},{"bin":"20–30","count":21.856507999999998},{"bin":"30–40","count":4.4856799999999994},{"bin":"40–50","count":0},{"bin":"50–60","count":0},{"bin":"60–70","count":0},{"bin":"70–80","count":0},{"bin":"80–90","count":0},{"bin":"90–100","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.5951836566378499,"entropy":0.9321240776260459,"meanConfidence":0.6053393623203613,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.000441104238350968,"withinModelVariance":0.002047126600984086,"modelIcc":0.28119566278265173,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.001899257056623932,"personaIcc":0.31526006789492267,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.021539792564108207},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.020478574110596615}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":18.64329091506933},{"n":10,"estimate":15},{"n":15,"estimate":20},{"n":20,"estimate":20},{"n":25,"estimate":20},{"n":30,"estimate":20},{"n":35,"estimate":20},{"n":40,"estimate":15},{"n":45,"estimate":20},{"n":50,"estimate":20}],"influence":0.360288095172657,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.0003912877399561497,"within":0.0029633207166502923,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.000017675238115929968,"within":0.0027143983543299176,"icc":0,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.00021324041716579446,"within":0.0022844847486453716,"icc":0.12817143716517412,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.000023428087454800756,"within":0.00248220592592196,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0002432113927664349,"within":0.002403482657818944,"icc":0.026424491735971938,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8780666661494907,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8764495021959275,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.972800006364629,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.2719276512927995,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":2.6110381492954144,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.132311611757607,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.884601727661298,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7656825851470113,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.593309450131827,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.900384125230905,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9052330468081904,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.8041040127313295,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9696417259691632,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":18.7,"sd":5.080354318352216,"p10":15,"p50":20,"p90":25.500000000000007,"iqr":5,"histogram":[{"bin":"0–10","count":0},{"bin":"10–20","count":23},{"bin":"20–30","count":22},{"bin":"30–40","count":5},{"bin":"40–50","count":0},{"bin":"50–60","count":0},{"bin":"60–70","count":0},{"bin":"70–80","count":0},{"bin":"80–90","count":0},{"bin":"90–100","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.5879877802274466},"decidesQuestion":true,"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":32,"nEff":28.439374470241304,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":19.856708586091575,"p50":20},"value":19.856708586091575,"rest":16.932887303953343,"restNEff":16.716109518100257,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":18,"nEff":16.716109518100257,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":16.932887303953343,"p50":16.364851626276003},"value":16.932887303953343,"rest":19.856708586091575,"restNEff":28.439374470241304,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":26,"nEff":23.0051926152743,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":18.07045123963264,"p50":15},"value":18.07045123963264,"rest":19.059341763615826,"restNEff":21.229179961550425,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":24,"nEff":21.229179961550425,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":19.059341763615826,"p50":20},"value":19.059341763615826,"rest":18.07045123963264,"restNEff":23.0051926152743,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":4,"nEff":3.684032106302731,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.39505447151055,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":9,"nEff":7.238184559791321,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.057422189060404,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.044636799366655,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.35759013039205,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.204144458766107,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.87189893320292,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":7,"nEff":6.784184426762323,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.35932869141943,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":13,"nEff":12.211697592052664,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.01159812293104,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":13,"nEff":10.87203169874048,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":32.38983660892644,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":17,"nEff":13.94044084955356,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":29.863845065401453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.995856594314052,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":18.218223122053644,"p50":19.289762533720793},"value":18.218223122053644,"rest":18.62668785502456,"restNEff":24.353451980408433,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":11,"nEff":8.771331979723637,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.001397753595036,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.122200570956849,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.95986842093804,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":13,"nEff":12.166576318346053,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.32728760009677,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":6,"nEff":5.596311280796015,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.4823216687831,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":36,"nEff":30.847811065503056,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":19.28093531902916,"p50":20},"value":19.28093531902916,"rest":null,"restNEff":12.327022449543229,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"weighted":18.463925007835492,"unweighted":18.7,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"nato_deterrence_credibility","type":"likert","prompt":"W jakim stopniu gwarancje bezpieczeństwa wynikające z art. 5 Traktatu Północnoatlantyckiego skutecznie odstraszają Federację Rosyjską przed agresją na państwa wschodniej flanki NATO?","shortPrompt":"Czy NATO skutecznie odstrasza Rosję przed atakiem?","scale":{"kind":"rating","min":1,"max":5,"low":"Zupełnie nieskuteczne","high":"W pełni skuteczne"},"n":50,"options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":5,"share":0.0888901253334075,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.08414833442754105},{"option":"4","count":45,"share":0.9111098746665924,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9158516655724592},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.9111098746665927,"sd":0.28458508560994294,"p10":4,"p50":4,"p90":4,"iqr":0,"histogram":[{"bin":"1–1.8","count":0},{"bin":"1.8–2.6","count":0},{"bin":"2.6–3.4","count":4.4445060000000005},{"bin":"3.4–4.2","count":45.55549100000002},{"bin":"4.2–5","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.8136228631908162,"entropy":0.2999624299916175,"meanConfidence":0.7394452683667156,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.00008803355609273566,"withinModelVariance":0.005180998323768566,"modelIcc":0,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.004653617743319045,"personaIcc":0.7398541171451309,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.00962265740544388},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.009148570128136524}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":4},{"n":10,"estimate":4},{"n":15,"estimate":4},{"n":20,"estimate":4},{"n":25,"estimate":4},{"n":30,"estimate":4},{"n":35,"estimate":4},{"n":40,"estimate":4},{"n":45,"estimate":4},{"n":50,"estimate":4}],"influence":0.6016295764214287,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.0021519956529819297,"within":0.0042791122994899925,"icc":0.1807308005864514,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.0006817325606878616,"within":0.0049773402382104065,"icc":0.04334629174513413,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.0004492466073578032,"within":0.004804734727760132,"icc":0.12841197415626676,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.000029045439083792888,"within":0.0052424442791398325,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.00033565381833990446,"within":0.005251264608493161,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8780666661494907,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8764495021959275,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.972800006364629,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.2719276512927995,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":2.6110381492954144,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.132311611757607,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.884601727661298,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7656825851470113,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.593309450131827,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.900384125230905,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9052330468081904,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.8041040127313295,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9696417259691632,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":5,"share":0.1,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.0948509485094851},{"option":"4","count":45,"share":0.9,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9051490514905149},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.9,"sd":0.3000000000000001,"p10":3.9000000000000004,"p50":4,"p90":4,"iqr":0,"histogram":[{"bin":"1–1.8","count":0},{"bin":"1.8–2.6","count":0},{"bin":"2.6–3.4","count":5},{"bin":"3.4–4.2","count":45},{"bin":"4.2–5","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.7980145920013805},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"rating","option":"high"},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":32,"nEff":28.439374470241304,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":5,"share":0.16975338984973498,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.16107530094348788},{"option":"4","count":27,"share":0.8302466101502652,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8389246990565117},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.8302466101502652,"p50":4},"value":83.02466101502654,"rest":100.00000000000004,"restNEff":16.716109518100257,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":18,"nEff":16.716109518100257,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"4","count":18,"share":1,"confidenceWeightedShare":1},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":4,"p50":4},"value":100.00000000000004,"rest":83.02466101502654,"restNEff":28.439374470241304,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":26,"nEff":23.0051926152743,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":3,"share":0.10641465337155033,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.09939011749551528},{"option":"4","count":23,"share":0.8935853466284498,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9006098825044846},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.89358534662845,"p50":4},"value":89.35853466284497,"rest":93.76285360724343,"restNEff":21.229179961550425,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":24,"nEff":21.229179961550425,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":2,"share":0.062371463927566276,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.060281398936884854},{"option":"4","count":22,"share":0.9376285360724339,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.939718601063115},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.937628536072434,"p50":4},"value":93.76285360724343,"rest":89.35853466284497,"restNEff":23.0051926152743,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":4,"nEff":3.684032106302731,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.39505447151055,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":9,"nEff":7.238184559791321,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.057422189060404,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.044636799366655,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.35759013039205,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.204144458766107,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.87189893320292,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":7,"nEff":6.784184426762323,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.35932869141943,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":13,"nEff":12.211697592052664,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.01159812293104,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":13,"nEff":10.87203169874048,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":32.38983660892644,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":17,"nEff":13.94044084955356,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":29.863845065401453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.995856594314052,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.04990234761238509,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.04717894696111685},{"option":"4","count":19,"share":0.9500976523876151,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9528210530388832},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.9500976523876155,"p50":4},"value":95.00976523876155,"rest":88.52827969164393,"restNEff":24.353451980408433,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":11,"nEff":8.771331979723637,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.001397753595036,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.122200570956849,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.95986842093804,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":13,"nEff":12.166576318346053,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.32728760009677,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":6,"nEff":5.596311280796015,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.4823216687831,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":36,"nEff":30.847811065503056,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":4,"share":0.10740149984718216,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.10301520071229983},{"option":"4","count":32,"share":0.8925985001528176,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8969847992877004},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.8925985001528174,"p50":4},"value":89.25985001528177,"rest":null,"restNEff":12.327022449543229,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"rating","option":"high"},"weighted":91.1109874666592,"unweighted":90,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"russian_mil_reconstitution","type":"numeric","prompt":"Ile lat po zakończeniu lub zamrożeniu intensywnych działań wojennych w Ukrainie zajmie Rosji odtworzenie zdolności bojowych do poziomu umożliwiającego konflikt pełnoskalowy z NATO?","shortPrompt":"Ile lat zajmie Rosji odtworzenie sił zbrojnych?","scale":{"kind":"quantity","unit":"lata"},"n":50,"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.650402799024164,"sd":2.205341369542318,"p10":7,"p50":7,"p90":10,"iqr":3,"histogram":[{"bin":"5–6","count":0.489809},{"bin":"6–7","count":0},{"bin":"7–8","count":26.96483199999999},{"bin":"8–9","count":0},{"bin":"9–10","count":0},{"bin":"10–11","count":19.372618999999997},{"bin":"11–12","count":0},{"bin":"12–13","count":0},{"bin":"13–14","count":0},{"bin":"14–15","count":3.1727369999999997}]},"consensusIndex":0.6001605018561866,"entropy":0.9206644680161652,"meanConfidence":0.5886722743203362,"bimodalityFlag":true,"betweenModelVariance":0.5812523014348665,"withinModelVariance":0.4223638382984071,"modelIcc":0.7307563812840796,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.6779572544999406,"personaIcc":0,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.7819036562702704},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.7433809738241619}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":7},{"n":10,"estimate":8.894206623817603},{"n":15,"estimate":8.273844211403738},{"n":20,"estimate":10},{"n":25,"estimate":10},{"n":30,"estimate":10},{"n":35,"estimate":10},{"n":40,"estimate":9.93687620979237},{"n":45,"estimate":7},{"n":50,"estimate":7}],"influence":0.3532978475849157,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.32943595428150685,"within":0.966596543330606,"icc":0.04249408605885328,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.10901091324597624,"within":0.9973984990033606,"icc":0.011264730460013559,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.01531684745508067,"within":1.0118799376678078,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.0008543380118315691,"within":1.026945051708855,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.22200237350733013,"within":0.8496880186427354,"icc":0.1884282164659599,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8780666661494907,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8764495021959275,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.972800006364629,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.2719276512927995,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":2.6110381492954144,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.132311611757607,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.884601727661298,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7656825851470113,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.593309450131827,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.900384125230905,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9052330468081904,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.8041040127313295,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9696417259691632,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.64,"sd":2.1978170988505847,"p10":7,"p50":7,"p90":10,"iqr":3,"histogram":[{"bin":"5–6","count":1},{"bin":"6–7","count":0},{"bin":"7–8","count":26},{"bin":"8–9","count":0},{"bin":"9–10","count":0},{"bin":"10–11","count":20},{"bin":"11–12","count":0},{"bin":"12–13","count":0},{"bin":"13–14","count":0},{"bin":"14–15","count":3}]},"consensusIndex":0.5858554101575788},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":32,"nEff":28.439374470241304,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.388335954586438,"p50":7},"value":8.388335954586438,"rest":8.93848360787028,"restNEff":16.716109518100257,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":18,"nEff":16.716109518100257,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.93848360787028,"p50":7.38315233828008},"value":8.93848360787028,"rest":8.388335954586438,"restNEff":28.439374470241304,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":26,"nEff":23.0051926152743,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.597650579017841,"p50":7},"value":8.597650579017841,"rest":8.73022910063466,"restNEff":21.229179961550425,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":24,"nEff":21.229179961550425,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.73022910063466,"p50":10},"value":8.73022910063466,"rest":8.597650579017841,"restNEff":23.0051926152743,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":4,"nEff":3.684032106302731,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.39505447151055,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":9,"nEff":7.238184559791321,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.057422189060404,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.044636799366655,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.35759013039205,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.204144458766107,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.87189893320292,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":7,"nEff":6.784184426762323,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.35932869141943,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":13,"nEff":12.211697592052664,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.01159812293104,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":13,"nEff":10.87203169874048,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":32.38983660892644,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":17,"nEff":13.94044084955356,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":29.863845065401453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.995856594314052,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":8.613059440871822,"p50":7},"value":8.613059440871822,"rest":8.675140546873092,"restNEff":24.353451980408433,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":11,"nEff":8.771331979723637,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.001397753595036,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.122200570956849,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.95986842093804,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":13,"nEff":12.166576318346053,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.32728760009677,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":6,"nEff":5.596311280796015,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.4823216687831,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":36,"nEff":30.847811065503056,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":9.093014625267145,"p50":10},"value":9.093014625267145,"rest":null,"restNEff":12.327022449543229,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"weighted":8.650402799024164,"unweighted":8.64,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"most_likely_hostile_action","type":"categorical","prompt":"Jaka forma wrogich działań ze strony Rosji wobec Polski jest najbardziej prawdopodobna w horyzoncie 5 lat?","shortPrompt":"Jakie wrogie działania Rosji są najbardziej prawdopodobne?","scale":null,"n":50,"options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":37,"share":0.7587483455249004,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7928298880277831},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":13,"share":0.2412516544750992,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.20717011197221671},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.6567010191175604,"entropy":0.5525183951321876,"meanConfidence":0.7860879941652793,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.02448738415716279,"withinModelVariance":0.05076284733324865,"modelIcc":0.19224730218145308,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.043686558369927755,"personaIcc":0,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.358861692134779},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.34118136170363333}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":0.8408793705826525},{"n":10,"estimate":0.7153958210815611},{"n":15,"estimate":0.7340997270363031},{"n":20,"estimate":0.7606336999133978},{"n":25,"estimate":0.8117039148520894},{"n":30,"estimate":0.7497572724179028},{"n":35,"estimate":0.7658366687963013},{"n":40,"estimate":0.7963850051186776},{"n":45,"estimate":0.7661572683174337},{"n":50,"estimate":0.7587483455249008}],"influence":0.5162247868844178,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.021381590950649842,"within":0.07623254115921423,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.008465708301169304,"within":0.07358410193623513,"icc":0.0072440818520329905,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.0008934295798440701,"within":0.07533988341273157,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.0000047023791084832705,"within":0.0762656409158122,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0004416161622973145,"within":0.08086455755348963,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8780666661494907,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8764495021959275,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.972800006364629,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.2719276512927995,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":2.6110381492954144,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.132311611757607,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.884601727661298,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7656825851470113,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.593309450131827,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.900384125230905,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9052330468081904,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.8041040127313295,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9696417259691632,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":37,"share":0.74,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7752234993614304},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":13,"share":0.26,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.22477650063856958},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.643939717895216},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"share","option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki"},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":32,"nEff":28.439374470241304,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":23,"share":0.7136719642485981,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7470908723848746},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":9,"share":0.2863280357514022,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.25290912761512524},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":71.3671964248598,"rest":80.82992164326416,"restNEff":16.716109518100257,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":18,"nEff":16.716109518100257,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":14,"share":0.8082992164326415,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8425259058807368},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":4,"share":0.19170078356735873,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.15747409411926314},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":80.82992164326416,"rest":71.3671964248598,"restNEff":28.439374470241304,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":26,"nEff":23.0051926152743,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":19,"share":0.7615355972322473,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7961325975208606},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":7,"share":0.23846440276775277,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.20386740247913954},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":76.15355972322473,"rest":75.45305894678422,"restNEff":21.229179961550425,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":24,"nEff":21.229179961550425,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":18,"share":0.7545305894678421,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7876529193440346},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":6,"share":0.24546941053215823,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.21234708065596564},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":75.45305894678422,"rest":76.15355972322473,"restNEff":23.0051926152743,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":4,"nEff":3.684032106302731,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.39505447151055,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":9,"nEff":7.238184559791321,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.057422189060404,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.044636799366655,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.35759013039205,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.204144458766107,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.87189893320292,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":7,"nEff":6.784184426762323,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.35932869141943,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":13,"nEff":12.211697592052664,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.01159812293104,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":13,"nEff":10.87203169874048,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":32.38983660892644,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":17,"nEff":13.94044084955356,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":29.863845065401453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.995856594314052,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":16,"share":0.7773732852861102,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8050705935200521},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":4,"share":0.22262671471389,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.194929406479948},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":77.73732852861106,"rest":74.64104336093598,"restNEff":24.353451980408433,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":11,"nEff":8.771331979723637,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.001397753595036,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.122200570956849,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.95986842093804,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":13,"nEff":12.166576318346053,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.32728760009677,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":6,"nEff":5.596311280796015,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.4823216687831,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":36,"nEff":30.847811065503056,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki","count":27,"share":0.7668409356699097,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7960284918819813},{"option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","count":9,"share":0.23315906433008998,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.20397150811801862},{"option":"Bezpośredni atak rakietowy lub lotniczy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Pełnoskalowa inwazja lądowa","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"Brak wrogich działań wykraczających poza dyplomację","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":76.68409356699098,"rest":null,"restNEff":12.327022449543229,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"share","option":"Wojna hybrydowa i cyberataki"},"weighted":75.87483455249003,"unweighted":74,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"us_commitment_shift","type":"binary","prompt":"Czy w ciągu najbliższych 5 lat Stany Zjednoczone ograniczą swoją obecność wojskową w Polsce lub formalne zaangażowanie w obronę państw bałtyckich i Polski?","shortPrompt":"Czy USA ograniczą obecność wojskową w Polsce?","scale":null,"n":50,"options":[{"option":"yes","count":1,"share":0.019884821193089264,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.017631305798061072},{"option":"no","count":49,"share":0.9801151788069107,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9823686942019391}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.8592066422002489,"entropy":0.09759051900046503,"meanConfidence":0.6766879806012783,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.00037592531974474364,"withinModelVariance":0.01990988521588242,"modelIcc":0,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.019489415079208133,"personaIcc":1,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.019884821193089264},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.01890513955817677}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":1},{"n":10,"estimate":1},{"n":15,"estimate":1},{"n":20,"estimate":1},{"n":25,"estimate":1},{"n":30,"estimate":1},{"n":35,"estimate":1},{"n":40,"estimate":1},{"n":45,"estimate":1},{"n":50,"estimate":0.9801151788069107}],"influence":0.5814148076296916,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.0037280195486648015,"within":0.02317852349348679,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.0023787501083962583,"within":0.019443937625918457,"icc":0.026650828753470322,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.0003597005748188139,"within":0.019926785991889188,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.00026129921956153756,"within":0.02002928740387177,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0012845394104830797,"within":0.020227639766767665,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8780666661494907,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8764495021959275,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.972800006364629,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.2719276512927995,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":2.6110381492954144,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.132311611757607,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.884601727661298,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7656825851470113,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.593309450131827,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.900384125230905,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9052330468081904,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.8041040127313295,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9696417259691632,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[{"option":"yes","count":1,"share":0.02,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.01769911504424778},{"option":"no","count":49,"share":0.98,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9823008849557522}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.8585594574581793},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"share","option":"no"},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":32,"nEff":28.439374470241304,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"yes","count":1,"share":0.037974024577217436,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.034443935262760836},{"option":"no","count":31,"share":0.9620259754227826,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9655560647372391}],"continuous":null,"value":96.2025975422783,"rest":100.00000000000004,"restNEff":16.716109518100257,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":18,"nEff":16.716109518100257,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"yes","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"no","count":18,"share":1,"confidenceWeightedShare":1}],"continuous":null,"value":100.00000000000004,"rest":96.2025975422783,"restNEff":28.439374470241304,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":26,"nEff":23.0051926152743,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"yes","count":1,"share":0.033025458316461996,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.029401061901744827},{"option":"no","count":25,"share":0.9669745416835379,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9705989380982551}],"continuous":null,"value":96.69745416835379,"rest":100.00000000000004,"restNEff":21.229179961550425,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":24,"nEff":21.229179961550425,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"yes","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"no","count":24,"share":1,"confidenceWeightedShare":1}],"continuous":null,"value":100.00000000000004,"rest":96.69745416835379,"restNEff":23.0051926152743,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":4,"nEff":3.684032106302731,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.39505447151055,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":9,"nEff":7.238184559791321,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.057422189060404,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.044636799366655,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.35759013039205,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.204144458766107,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":39.87189893320292,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":7,"nEff":6.784184426762323,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.35932869141943,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":13,"nEff":12.211697592052664,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.01159812293104,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":13,"nEff":10.87203169874048,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":32.38983660892644,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":17,"nEff":13.94044084955356,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":29.863845065401453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.995856594314052,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"yes","count":1,"share":0.04990234761238509,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.044444108686173996},{"option":"no","count":19,"share":0.9500976523876151,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9555558913138259}],"continuous":null,"value":95.00976523876155,"rest":100.00000000000004,"restNEff":24.353451980408433,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":11,"nEff":8.771331979723637,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.001397753595036,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.122200570956849,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.95986842093804,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":13,"nEff":12.166576318346053,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":31.32728760009677,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":6,"nEff":5.596311280796015,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.4823216687831,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":14,"nEff":12.327022449543229,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":30.847811065503056,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":36,"nEff":30.847811065503056,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"yes","count":1,"share":0.02700155653127464,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.023564650348617776},{"option":"no","count":35,"share":0.9729984434687253,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9764353496513823}],"continuous":null,"value":97.29984434687252,"rest":null,"restNEff":12.327022449543229,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"share","option":"no"},"weighted":98.01151788069102,"unweighted":98,"equalGroups":null}}],"dissent":[{"subquestionId":"direct_attack_pl","position":"30%","rationale":"Myślę, że ryzyko ataku jest niskie, ale nie można go wykluczyć całkowicie, zwłaszcza w kontekście obecnych napięć.","confidence":0.6,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:45-54|female|rural|higher","personaLabel":"45–54 lata, kobieta, wieś, wykształcenie wyższe"},{"subquestionId":"direct_attack_pl","position":"30%","rationale":"Rosja raczej nie zdecyduje się na atak bezpośredni, ale nie można wykluczyć nieprzewidywalnych działań.","confidence":0.6,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:18-24|female|urban|secondary_general","personaLabel":"18–24 lata, kobieta, miasto, wykształcenie średnie ogólnokształcące"},{"subquestionId":"nato_deterrence_credibility","position":"3,0/5","option":"3","rationale":"Z jednej strony NATO to potęga, ale z drugiej strony nie mam pewności, czy inni naprawdę by nam pomogli w razie czego. Mam mieszane uczucia co do tego, czy to wystarczy.","confidence":0.7,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:18-24|female|urban|lower","personaLabel":"18–24 lata, kobieta, miasto, wykształcenie podstawowe lub gimnazjalne"},{"subquestionId":"nato_deterrence_credibility","position":"3,0/5","option":"3","rationale":"Wierzę w NATO, ale mam wątpliwości, czy inni członkowie naprawdę przyszliby nam z pomocą w razie ataku. Historia uczy, że na sojusznikach nie zawsze można polegać.","confidence":0.7,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:55-64|female|urban|vocational","personaLabel":"55–64 lata, kobieta, miasto, wykształcenie zasadnicze zawodowe"},{"subquestionId":"russian_mil_reconstitution","position":"15,0 lata","rationale":"Rosja potrzebuje około 15 lat po zamrożeniu działań, aby odbudować swoje zdolności bojowe; jest to długi i kosztowny proces.","confidence":0.7,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:55-64|male|urban|secondary_vocational","personaLabel":"55–64 lata, mężczyzna, miasto, wykształcenie średnie zawodowe lub policealne"},{"subquestionId":"russian_mil_reconstitution","position":"5,0 lata","rationale":"Rosja potrzebuje kilku lat, aby odbudować pełne zdolności bojowe po obecnych działaniach na Ukrainie.","confidence":0.6,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:25-34|female|rural|higher","personaLabel":"25–34 lata, kobieta, wieś, wykształcenie wyższe"},{"subquestionId":"most_likely_hostile_action","position":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","rationale":"Uważam, że najbardziej prawdopodobne są działania typu prowokacje lub sabotaż, bo to mniej ryzykowne dla Rosji niż pełnoskalowa inwazja.","confidence":0.7,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:65+|female|urban|vocational","personaLabel":"65 lat lub więcej, kobieta, miasto, wykształcenie zasadnicze zawodowe"},{"subquestionId":"most_likely_hostile_action","position":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","option":"Ograniczona prowokacja graniczna lub sabotaż","rationale":"Obawiam się, że Rosja może spróbować prowokacji i działań sabotażowych, by wywołać zamieszanie i wywołać reakcję NATO.","confidence":0.7,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:65+|female|urban|lower","personaLabel":"65 lat lub więcej, kobieta, miasto, wykształcenie podstawowe lub gimnazjalne"},{"subquestionId":"us_commitment_shift","position":"tak","option":"yes","rationale":"Ameryka patrzy coraz bardziej na Chiny i własne problemy wewnętrzne. Obawiam się, że mogą powoli wycofywać się z roli głównego żandarma w Europie.","confidence":0.6,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:55-64|female|urban|vocational","personaLabel":"55–64 lata, kobieta, miasto, wykształcenie zasadnicze zawodowe"}],"audience":{"id":"pl-national","kind":"population","label":"Polska — ogół dorosłych","teryt":"00","frameVersion":"pl-2026-09","frameFetchedAt":"2026-09-14T08:13:16.741Z","attribution":"Dane: Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Bank Danych Lokalnych (bdl.stat.gov.pl), licencja CC BY 4.0","n":50,"nEff":43.07313495284749,"deff":1.1608163662741382,"marginOfError":0.1493189249814435,"regions":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8780666661494907},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8764495021959275},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.972800006364629},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.2719276512927995},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":2.6110381492954144},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.132311611757607},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.884601727661298},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7656825851470113},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.593309450131827},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.900384125230905},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9052330468081904},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.8041040127313295},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9696417259691632}]},"calibration":{"fixture":"pl-calibration-2023-sejm","frame":"pl-2026-09","measuredAt":"2026-09-14","n":2000,"seed":"turnout-final","language":"pl","maePp":9.81,"baselineMaePp":14.41,"betterOnItems":23,"worseOnItems":15,"tiedItems":0,"comparableItems":38,"directionAgreement":1,"directionContrasts":8,"directionBaseline":0,"declaredTurnout":0.855,"byFamily":{"głos":{"items":17,"maePp":9.19,"baselineMaePp":14.58,"betterOnItems":16},"frekwencja":{"items":17,"maePp":12.43,"baselineMaePp":11.79,"betterOnItems":3},"samoopis":{"items":4,"maePp":1.23,"baselineMaePp":24.87,"betterOnItems":4}},"claim":"panel-simulation","sources":["PKW, oficjalne wyniki wyborów do Sejmu 2023 (głosy oddane w Polsce)","Operat GUS/BDL, licencja CC BY 4.0"],"caveat":"To jest symulacja panelu, a nie szacunek opinii publicznej. Zmierzony średni błąd bezwzględny wobec opublikowanych wyników wyborów do Sejmu 2023 wynosi 9,8 punktu procentowego (9,2 pp dla deklaracji poparcia, 12,4 pp dla frekwencji). Panel modelowo szacuje frekwencję na 85,5% wobec 74,0% rzeczywistej."},"evidence":null,"webSentiment":null,"panel":{"requestedAgents":50,"respondedAgents":50,"failedAgents":0,"models":["google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","openai/gpt-4.1-nano"],"personas":["demo:25-34|female|urban|higher","demo:35-44|female|rural|vocational","demo:55-64|male|rural|vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|vocational","demo:35-44|female|urban|higher","demo:65+|female|rural|lower","demo:35-44|male|urban|higher","demo:45-54|female|rural|vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|lower","demo:18-24|female|urban|lower","demo:25-34|female|rural|higher","demo:45-54|female|urban|secondary_general","demo:65+|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:45-54|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|female|urban|vocational","demo:65+|female|rural|vocational","demo:18-24|female|rural|secondary_general","demo:45-54|male|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|male|urban|secondary_general","demo:35-44|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|female|rural|secondary_general","demo:45-54|female|rural|higher","demo:25-34|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|male|urban|higher","demo:65+|male|urban|higher","demo:18-24|female|urban|secondary_general","demo:35-44|female|rural|lower","demo:55-64|female|rural|vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|secondary_general","demo:35-44|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|male|rural|lower","demo:18-24|male|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|female|rural|vocational","demo:65+|male|rural|vocational"],"seed":"78654cf6-8db","tier":"cheap","costUsd":0.04415645,"durationMs":0,"llmCalls":0,"timings":{"decomposeMs":0,"castMs":0,"aggregateMs":0,"synthesizeMs":0}},"warnings":[],"bearings":[{"subquestionId":"nato_deterrence_credibility","direction":"supports","text":"Rozmówcy oceniają skuteczność odstraszania NATO na 4 na 5, co oddala perspektywę rosyjskiego ataku na Polskę."},{"subquestionId":"russian_mil_reconstitution","direction":"supports","text":"Według panelu odbudowa sił Rosji potrwa 7 lat, co przekracza pięcioletni horyzont prognozy."},{"subquestionId":"most_likely_hostile_action","direction":"supports","text":"76% rozmówców wskazuje na wojnę hybrydową i cyberataki, nie przewidując bezpośredniej inwazji ani ataków rakietowych."},{"subquestionId":"us_commitment_shift","direction":"supports","text":"Brak ograniczenia obecności USA przewiduje 98% rozmówców, co wzmacnia bezpieczeństwo Polski w najbliższych latach."}],"composition":{"basis":"gus","claim":"panel-simulation","label":"dorośli mieszkańcy Polski","labelAcc":"dorosłych mieszkańców Polski","region":{"teryt":"00","name":"Polska"},"spec":null,"axes":[{"axis":"sex","label":"Płeć","levels":[{"level":"female","label":"kobiety","share":0.5236427114185623,"n":32},{"level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","share":0.476357288581437,"n":18}]},{"axis":"age","label":"Wiek","levels":[{"level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","share":0.22259469335568152,"n":13},{"level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","share":0.3789306427358383,"n":17},{"level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","share":0.3984746639084795,"n":20}]},{"axis":"settlement","label":"Miejsce zamieszkania","levels":[{"level":"urban","label":"miasto","share":0.6021058361263498,"n":26},{"level":"rural","label":"wieś","share":0.3978941638736495,"n":24}]},{"axis":"education","label":"Wykształcenie","levels":[{"level":"higher","label":"wyższe","share":0.26356759581405564,"n":14},{"level":"secondary","label":"średnie","share":0.3749531824971908,"n":17},{"level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","share":0.23536841412210469,"n":13},{"level":"lower","label":"podstawowe","share":0.1261108075666484,"n":6}]}],"groups":[],"n":50,"nEff":43.07313495284749,"marginOfError":0.1493189249814435,"thresholds":{"minGroupNEff":15,"detectablePoints":40}}}