{"status":"complete","pollId":"1a7a9cd9-e049-49d8-a21c-7559aee6a7fe","createdAt":"2026-09-15T08:59:34.253Z","question":"Czy płaca minimalna w Polsce przekroczy 6000 zł brutto do końca 2047 roku?","questionClass":"forecast","resolutionHorizon":"2047-12-31","verdict":"Panel analityków jest zgodny, że płaca minimalna w Polsce przekroczy 6000 zł brutto do końca 2047 roku, przy czym 68,9% wskazało na lata 2029–2035, a 31,1% na lata 2036–2047. Największy wpływ na to tempo mają decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza, które uzyskały 81,5% pierwszych miejsc w rankingu czynników. Eksperci podzielili się jednak w kwestii momentu przekroczenia tego progu oraz prawdopodobieństwa przyjęcia euro (średnia 46,43%), gdzie wynik silnie zależy od tego, który model był pytany.","verdictConfidence":0.3801609369163648,"consensusIndex":0.5392668600314432,"drivers":["minimum_to_average_ratio","drivers_of_growth","timing_crossing","cpi_trend","adoption_of_euro"],"subquestions":[{"id":"cpi_trend","type":"numeric","prompt":"Jaka będzie średnioroczna stopa inflacji CPI w Polsce w latach 2025-2047?","n":50,"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.7620311440000016,"sd":0.7047495983496915,"p10":2.5,"p50":3.5,"p90":4.5,"iqr":1,"histogram":[{"bin":"2.5–2.7","count":6.838084},{"bin":"2.7–2.9","count":0},{"bin":"2.9–3.1","count":1.432804},{"bin":"3.1–3.3","count":2.688922},{"bin":"3.3–3.5","count":0},{"bin":"3.5–3.7","count":16.671196},{"bin":"3.7–3.9","count":0},{"bin":"3.9–4.1","count":0},{"bin":"4.1–4.3","count":3.020914},{"bin":"4.3–4.5","count":19.348080000000003}]},"consensusIndex":0.37711630877734637,"entropy":1.4342427020783886,"meanConfidence":0.6682232200000001,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.45092746479578666,"withinModelVariance":0.5415637785676822,"modelIcc":0.6193116066624621,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.9071718039798834,"personaIcc":0.5429000917063078,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.6925070168331375},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.6511521960570104}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":3.4874209382237784},{"n":10,"estimate":3.5863601048666043},{"n":15,"estimate":3.8198148686855435},{"n":20,"estimate":3.799848507650687},{"n":25,"estimate":3.643266684342353},{"n":30,"estimate":3.7116611010122607},{"n":35,"estimate":3.718308264239593},{"n":40,"estimate":3.7439368251243756},{"n":45,"estimate":3.7287533406182667},{"n":50,"estimate":3.762031144}],"influence":0.2519978741657127,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.24504487278275416,"within":1.067329146232365,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.23536697232814896,"within":0.8357519544234241,"icc":0.18207987959806315,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.014702145420420299,"within":0.995965152917023,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.03625263297409139,"within":0.973516728381949,"icc":0.034728584377913874,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.12104756916390982,"within":0.9442012478409476,"icc":0.05814609295395036,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.725700569878871,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9063921239863104,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8581099219128276,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.580815283205746,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8794606978592685,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.38913884762198,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.968274638530466,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8455213757290734,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.563795111858072,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9936424157096675,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9996813977344328,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.87921881595021,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9037184074998894,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.793999999999999,"sd":0.7080706179471085,"p10":2.5,"p50":3.5,"p90":4.5,"iqr":1,"histogram":[{"bin":"2.5–2.7","count":7},{"bin":"2.7–2.9","count":0},{"bin":"2.9–3.1","count":1},{"bin":"3.1–3.3","count":2},{"bin":"3.3–3.5","count":0},{"bin":"3.5–3.7","count":16},{"bin":"3.7–3.9","count":0},{"bin":"3.9–4.1","count":0},{"bin":"4.1–4.3","count":4},{"bin":"4.3–4.5","count":20}]},"consensusIndex":0.3852801131142618},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":23,"nEff":21.661405617310855,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.8447496716654186,"p50":3.629491948611245},"value":3.8447496716654186,"rest":3.6711016049884555,"restNEff":25.291154469975393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":27,"nEff":25.291154469975393,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.6711016049884555,"p50":3.5},"value":3.6711016049884555,"rest":3.8447496716654186,"restNEff":21.661405617310855,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":31,"nEff":28.237152763538504,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.651322727491052,"p50":3.5},"value":3.651322727491052,"rest":3.929558597146397,"restNEff":18.007487489573453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":19,"nEff":18.007487489573453,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.929558597146397,"p50":4.15843119659218},"value":3.929558597146397,"rest":3.651322727491052,"restNEff":28.237152763538504,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":5,"nEff":4.933402674837467,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":41.57443024876233,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.50118601512303,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.94203253986286,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":9,"nEff":8.499675497553925,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.76726570069242,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":10,"nEff":9.171751566759658,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.114181396832535,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":8,"nEff":7.757392638934632,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.67330958698694,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":12,"nEff":11.102803889789357,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.193717465699926,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.005627152861296,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.23550433525026,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":19,"nEff":17.597067863762167,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.757042430185783,"p50":3.5},"value":3.757042430185783,"rest":3.7650748893883508,"restNEff":28.634098917320017,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.638909504587698,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.9408810236515417,"p50":4.2},"value":3.9408810236515417,"rest":3.6435537661638655,"restNEff":27.59586457466041,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":13,"nEff":12.505558234331227,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.80644967388635,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.732760407826953,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.4979240922072,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":11,"nEff":10.796699820945765,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.43476674951299,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":10,"nEff":9.565745372506473,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.24511039126393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":40,"nEff":37.37549563246413,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":3.892232329810584,"p50":4.2},"value":3.892232329810584,"rest":null,"restNEff":9.756294018018465,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"weighted":3.7620311440000016,"unweighted":3.793999999999999,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"timing_crossing","type":"categorical","prompt":"W którym przedziale czasowym płaca minimalna w Polsce po raz pierwszy przekroczy poziom 6000 zł brutto?","n":50,"options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":33,"share":0.6890808800000002,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7250126156469074},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":17,"share":0.3109191200000001,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.27498738435309306},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.5528842114476156,"entropy":0.6198340964378439,"meanConfidence":0.7285674739999999,"bimodalityFlag":true,"betweenModelVariance":0.05140513839221078,"withinModelVariance":0.0580407000177104,"modelIcc":0.31705016305842126,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.09170740040921282,"personaIcc":0,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.46763186445356203},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.43970603630510774}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":1},{"n":10,"estimate":0.8671786265597903},{"n":15,"estimate":0.7959580164413874},{"n":20,"estimate":0.7514979852708965},{"n":25,"estimate":0.7103953665570693},{"n":30,"estimate":0.6462609958679476},{"n":35,"estimate":0.6224257834482816},{"n":40,"estimate":0.6232921902983499},{"n":45,"estimate":0.6523546209371043},{"n":50,"estimate":0.6890808800000002}],"influence":0.4028134533488711,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.026550734477690054,"within":0.11849040578165113,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.013031832273882885,"within":0.10692315697196582,"icc":0.013059029192257697,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.010809473782928541,"within":0.10032785065237941,"icc":0.07478518890389496,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.0036517599534320096,"within":0.10778380255810498,"icc":0.014076666365953654,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0036508033770008648,"within":0.11497045225801325,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.725700569878871,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9063921239863104,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8581099219128276,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.580815283205746,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8794606978592685,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.38913884762198,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.968274638530466,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8455213757290734,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.563795111858072,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9936424157096675,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9996813977344328,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.87921881595021,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9037184074998894,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":33,"share":0.66,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.700831024930748},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":17,"share":0.34,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.29916897506925194},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.5375906475134851},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"share","option":"W latach 2029-2035"},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":23,"nEff":21.661405617310855,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":19,"share":0.82931903106141,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8478915924031172},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":4,"share":0.17068096893858994,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.1521084075968829},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":82.93190310614098,"rest":53.492206228719226,"restNEff":25.291154469975393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":27,"nEff":25.291154469975393,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":14,"share":0.5349220622871923,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.582051281305117},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":13,"share":0.4650779377128075,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.4179487186948831},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":53.492206228719226,"rest":82.93190310614098,"restNEff":21.661405617310855,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":31,"nEff":28.237152763538504,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":18,"share":0.6196082987928967,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.6595789596617581},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":13,"share":0.38039170120710325,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.3404210403382421},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":61.960829879289676,"rest":79.42089719747555,"restNEff":18.007487489573453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":19,"nEff":18.007487489573453,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":15,"share":0.7942089719747554,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.820551414618977},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":4,"share":0.2057910280252445,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.179448585381023},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":79.42089719747555,"rest":61.960829879289676,"restNEff":28.237152763538504,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":5,"nEff":4.933402674837467,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":41.57443024876233,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.50118601512303,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.94203253986286,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":9,"nEff":8.499675497553925,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.76726570069242,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":10,"nEff":9.171751566759658,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.114181396832535,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":8,"nEff":7.757392638934632,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.67330958698694,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":12,"nEff":11.102803889789357,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.193717465699926,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.005627152861296,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.23550433525026,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":19,"nEff":17.597067863762167,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":13,"share":0.7140038534750548,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.75094025701012},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":6,"share":0.285996146524945,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.24905974298988015},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":71.40038534750548,"rest":67.38747189725848,"restNEff":28.634098917320017,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.638909504587698,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":12,"share":0.6588863643173696,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7014897740081928},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":8,"share":0.3411136356826304,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.29851022599180704},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":65.88863643173697,"rest":70.90829456993448,"restNEff":27.59586457466041,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":13,"nEff":12.505558234331227,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.80644967388635,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.732760407826953,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.4979240922072,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":11,"nEff":10.796699820945765,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.43476674951299,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":10,"nEff":9.565745372506473,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.24511039126393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":40,"nEff":37.37549563246413,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Do końca 2028 roku","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"W latach 2029-2035","count":26,"share":0.6810657977568614,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7252003189035257},{"option":"W latach 2036-2047","count":14,"share":0.3189342022431386,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.2747996810964745},{"option":"Po 2047 roku lub nigdy","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":68.10657977568613,"rest":null,"restNEff":9.756294018018465,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"share","option":"W latach 2029-2035"},"weighted":68.90808800000003,"unweighted":66,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"adoption_of_euro","type":"probability","prompt":"Jakie jest prawdopodobieństwo, że Polska przyjmie walutę euro przed 1 stycznia 2048 roku (co zmieniłoby walutę denominacji płacy minimalnej)?","n":50,"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":46.425173800000024,"sd":23.326381880604494,"p10":20,"p50":32.59416386200909,"p90":72.45339682305543,"iqr":46.77390724433798,"histogram":[{"bin":"0–10","count":0},{"bin":"10–20","count":0},{"bin":"20–30","count":14.168917},{"bin":"30–40","count":11.600527000000001},{"bin":"40–50","count":0.68251},{"bin":"50–60","count":1.720164},{"bin":"60–70","count":0.906483},{"bin":"70–80","count":18.123222},{"bin":"80–90","count":2.798177},{"bin":"90–100","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.360405102901589,"entropy":1.472721675613862,"meanConfidence":0.6725760810000004,"bimodalityFlag":true,"betweenModelVariance":0.04977628744831967,"withinModelVariance":0.0048288767871454835,"modelIcc":0.9536942775195865,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.04571601976397936,"personaIcc":0,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.23008170403905154},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.216341788914564}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":47.28047660822996},{"n":10,"estimate":45.072377483968005},{"n":15,"estimate":40.87808344965929},{"n":20,"estimate":46.379713180268084},{"n":25,"estimate":45.270676542662706},{"n":30,"estimate":46.87957843201221},{"n":35,"estimate":46.539973989087876},{"n":40,"estimate":46.15533099193622},{"n":45,"estimate":47.414900756304945},{"n":50,"estimate":46.42517380000002}],"influence":0.2423998516819526,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.004986110779410273,"within":0.07268514468318982,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.004956590647928397,"within":0.05619933922278517,"icc":0,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.0003058239203757347,"within":0.05636060962875375,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.003253330210899079,"within":0.05329029057612527,"icc":0.07891074576205068,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0027350864372914325,"within":0.057418803029653236,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.725700569878871,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9063921239863104,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8581099219128276,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.580815283205746,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8794606978592685,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.38913884762198,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.968274638530466,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8455213757290734,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.563795111858072,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9936424157096675,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9996813977344328,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.87921881595021,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9037184074998894,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[],"continuous":{"mean":46.8,"sd":23.38289973463515,"p10":20,"p50":35,"p90":75,"iqr":48.75,"histogram":[{"bin":"0–10","count":0},{"bin":"10–20","count":0},{"bin":"20–30","count":14},{"bin":"30–40","count":11},{"bin":"40–50","count":1},{"bin":"50–60","count":2},{"bin":"60–70","count":1},{"bin":"70–80","count":18},{"bin":"80–90","count":3},{"bin":"90–100","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.3436188133356265},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":23,"nEff":21.661405617310855,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":44.7572176507843,"p50":30},"value":44.7572176507843,"rest":48.25869874320394,"restNEff":25.291154469975393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":27,"nEff":25.291154469975393,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":48.25869874320394,"p50":49.88180989886463},"value":48.25869874320394,"rest":44.7572176507843,"restNEff":21.661405617310855,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":31,"nEff":28.237152763538504,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":51.06189944532678,"p50":69.67963813922029},"value":51.06189944532678,"rest":39.408734916716035,"restNEff":18.007487489573453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":19,"nEff":18.007487489573453,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":39.408734916716035,"p50":30},"value":39.408734916716035,"rest":51.06189944532678,"restNEff":28.237152763538504,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":5,"nEff":4.933402674837467,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":41.57443024876233,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.50118601512303,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.94203253986286,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":9,"nEff":8.499675497553925,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.76726570069242,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":10,"nEff":9.171751566759658,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.114181396832535,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":8,"nEff":7.757392638934632,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.67330958698694,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":12,"nEff":11.102803889789357,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.193717465699926,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.005627152861296,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.23550433525026,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":19,"nEff":17.597067863762167,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":47.68509281512423,"p50":40.126813973252744},"value":47.68509281512423,"rest":45.656464101510075,"restNEff":28.634098917320017,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.638909504587698,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":45.12022069358188,"p50":41.49954022089372},"value":45.12022069358188,"rest":47.28962739957055,"restNEff":27.59586457466041,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":13,"nEff":12.505558234331227,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.80644967388635,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.732760407826953,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.4979240922072,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":11,"nEff":10.796699820945765,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.43476674951299,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":10,"nEff":9.565745372506473,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.24511039126393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":40,"nEff":37.37549563246413,"status":"ok","options":[],"continuous":{"mean":46.09781060692061,"p50":30},"value":46.09781060692061,"rest":null,"restNEff":9.756294018018465,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"mean","option":null},"weighted":46.425173800000024,"unweighted":46.8,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"drivers_of_growth","type":"ranking","prompt":"Uporządkuj czynniki według ich siły wpływu na tempo podnoszenia płacy minimalnej w Polsce do 2047 roku (od najważniejszego):","n":50,"options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":7,"share":0.12554130000000005,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.12481952878589019},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":39,"share":0.8147392000000002,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.815672231602099},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":2,"share":0.03170036000000002,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.03063015018949644},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":2,"share":0.028019140000000012,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.028878089422514307}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.5404878023880022,"entropy":0.6370191684153215,"meanConfidence":0.7762048130000004,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.01134946468171072,"withinModelVariance":0.051669609434104036,"modelIcc":0.276071406082929,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.05694029529400614,"personaIcc":0.5581005064987898,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.21972957659416806},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.20660786513365445}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":0.8875328107197262},{"n":10,"estimate":0.7670370268968815},{"n":15,"estimate":0.7668769896176071},{"n":20,"estimate":0.785142318594679},{"n":25,"estimate":0.8300214263213658},{"n":30,"estimate":0.8000595644086791},{"n":35,"estimate":0.7759641186662867},{"n":40,"estimate":0.7631888514609186},{"n":45,"estimate":0.7914496058486615},{"n":50,"estimate":0.8147391999999997}],"influence":0.41952923358136046,"borda":[{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","score":2.66},{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","score":1.7},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","score":1.24},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","score":0.4}],"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.013956726104014116,"within":0.06911112299181836,"icc":0.005960159835723332,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.004927750617585278,"within":0.06366424900098332,"icc":0.04024615696031782,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.0010691175142012008,"within":0.06237830440025978,"icc":0.014540350094655517,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.0011900052157322266,"within":0.06225237971116497,"icc":0.009510396821853437,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0018321363836656637,"within":0.06568905928309438,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.725700569878871,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9063921239863104,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8581099219128276,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.580815283205746,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8794606978592685,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.38913884762198,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.968274638530466,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8455213757290734,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.563795111858072,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9936424157096675,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9996813977344328,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.87921881595021,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9037184074998894,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":7,"share":0.14,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.13935483870967746},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":39,"share":0.78,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7806451612903229},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":2,"share":0.04,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.038709677419354854},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":2,"share":0.04,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.04129032258064518}],"continuous":null,"consensusIndex":0.4758936150129468},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"share","option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza"},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":23,"nEff":21.661405617310855,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":2,"share":0.07535764655394399,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.0753022050205735},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":20,"share":0.904238516234009,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9050563023937451},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":1,"share":0.02040383721204696,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.019641492585681177},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":90.4238516234009,"rest":71.6355780992302,"restNEff":25.291154469975393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":27,"nEff":25.291154469975393,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":5,"share":0.18070640753457926,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.17968157528452322},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":19,"share":0.7163557809923019,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7166403640631841},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":1,"share":0.04411822620884674,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.042804884173006486},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":2,"share":0.05881958526427177,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.060873176479286126}],"continuous":null,"value":71.6355780992302,"rest":90.4238516234009,"restNEff":21.661405617310855,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":31,"nEff":28.237152763538504,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":6,"share":0.18037046906102294,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.1766754003470876},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":23,"share":0.778020138252096,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7823813050813768},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":1,"share":0.01774491888370198,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.016817810806365425},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":1,"share":0.02386447380317893,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.024125483765170284}],"continuous":null,"value":77.80201382520961,"rest":87.03036375606655,"restNEff":18.007487489573453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":19,"nEff":18.007487489573453,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":1,"share":0.04257207922549848,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.042385901912713624},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":16,"share":0.8703036375606655,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8685937568305953},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":1,"share":0.052818171829229335,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.052587186040508806},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":1,"share":0.03430611138460653,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.036433155216182345}],"continuous":null,"value":87.03036375606655,"rest":77.80201382520961,"restNEff":28.237152763538504,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":5,"nEff":4.933402674837467,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":41.57443024876233,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.50118601512303,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.94203253986286,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":9,"nEff":8.499675497553925,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.76726570069242,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":10,"nEff":9.171751566759658,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.114181396832535,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":8,"nEff":7.757392638934632,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.67330958698694,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":12,"nEff":11.102803889789357,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.193717465699926,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.005627152861296,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.23550433525026,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":19,"nEff":17.597067863762167,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":3,"share":0.13489933647498076,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.13771644866133007},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":14,"share":0.7717195254963505,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.7683022904570206},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":1,"share":0.055461433977241736,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.0543466104990011},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":1,"share":0.037919704051426806,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.03963465038264827}],"continuous":null,"value":77.17195254963505,"rest":84.09866338587337,"restNEff":28.634098917320017,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.638909504587698,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":2,"share":0.08774289436623148,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.08458975252782246},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":17,"share":0.8854440580989515,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8895607576431779},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":1,"share":0.0268130475348169,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.025849489828999764},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":null,"value":88.54440580989517,"rest":76.79014486737998,"restNEff":27.59586457466041,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":13,"nEff":12.505558234331227,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.80644967388635,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.732760407826953,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.4979240922072,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":11,"nEff":10.796699820945765,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.43476674951299,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":10,"nEff":9.565745372506473,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.24511039126393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":40,"nEff":37.37549563246413,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","count":5,"share":0.11546118829100949,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.11710370985136312},{"option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza","count":31,"share":0.8034458288364281,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.8002243683034641},{"option":"Wzrost realnej produktywności gospodarki","count":2,"share":0.04304585186637633,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.04255298760444026},{"option":"Dyrektywy i regulacje Unii Europejskiej","count":2,"share":0.038047131006186036,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.04011893424073253}],"continuous":null,"value":80.34458288364281,"rest":null,"restNEff":9.756294018018465,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"share","option":"Decyzje polityczne i presja wyborcza"},"weighted":81.47392000000005,"unweighted":78,"equalGroups":null}},{"id":"minimum_to_average_ratio","type":"likert","prompt":"Czy relacja płacy minimalnej do przeciętnego wynagrodzenia w gospodarce narodowej przekroczy trwale próg 55% przed końcem 2047 roku?","n":50,"options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":1,"share":0.029854980000000014,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.03317835200375822},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.016191520000000008,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.017993914249344368},{"option":"4","count":48,"share":0.9539535,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9488277337468976},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.92409852,"sd":0.36034761735553306,"p10":4,"p50":4,"p90":4,"iqr":0,"histogram":[{"bin":"1–1.8","count":0},{"bin":"1.8–2.6","count":1.492749},{"bin":"2.6–3.4","count":0.809576},{"bin":"3.4–4.2","count":47.69767499999998},{"bin":"4.2–5","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.865440874642663,"entropy":0.216564557814071,"meanConfidence":0.6748748400000002,"bimodalityFlag":false,"betweenModelVariance":0.0003829324536869147,"withinModelVariance":0.00805491445799602,"modelIcc":0.05225189089370188,"betweenPersonaVariance":0.008115650333363101,"personaIcc":1,"modelDivergence":[{"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","n":25,"divergence":0.02018049996848159},{"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","n":25,"divergence":0.01897536999999938}],"convergenceCurve":[{"n":5,"estimate":1},{"n":10,"estimate":1},{"n":15,"estimate":1},{"n":20,"estimate":1},{"n":25,"estimate":0.9414783731325747},{"n":30,"estimate":0.951245297670724},{"n":35,"estimate":0.9583728469698383},{"n":40,"estimate":0.9415899246238378},{"n":45,"estimate":0.9487695068948914},{"n":50,"estimate":0.9539535}],"influence":0.5840642718039274,"borda":null,"demographicVariance":[{"axis":"region","between":0.0013335603620534984,"within":0.009973661722514128,"icc":0,"groups":16},{"axis":"age","between":0.0013116647204503202,"within":0.007731801832855429,"icc":0.07864977597774253,"groups":6},{"axis":"sex","between":0.00009987066874666055,"within":0.008349770483975451,"icc":0,"groups":2},{"axis":"settlement","between":0.00023794421950269212,"within":0.00820594386860459,"icc":0.018430103397313036,"groups":2},{"axis":"education","between":0.0005505498561196607,"within":0.008405667196937158,"icc":0,"groups":5}],"regional":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.725700569878871,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9063921239863104,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8581099219128276,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.580815283205746,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8794606978592685,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.38913884762198,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.968274638530466,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8455213757290734,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.563795111858072,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9936424157096675,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9996813977344328,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.87921881595021,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9037184074998894,"status":"insufficient_sample","marginOfError":1,"options":[],"continuous":null}],"unweighted":{"options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":1,"share":0.02,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.022255192878338267},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.02,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.022255192878338267},{"option":"4","count":48,"share":0.96,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9554896142433232},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.94,"sd":0.3104834939252001,"p10":4,"p50":4,"p90":4,"iqr":0,"histogram":[{"bin":"1–1.8","count":0},{"bin":"1.8–2.6","count":1},{"bin":"2.6–3.4","count":1},{"bin":"3.4–4.2","count":48},{"bin":"4.2–5","count":0}]},"consensusIndex":0.8784233716349821},"segmentMeasure":{"kind":"rating","option":"high"},"segments":[{"axis":"sex","level":"female","label":"kobiety","n":23,"nEff":21.661405617310855,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":1,"share":0.05701403101825084,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.06472172846564332},{"option":"3","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"4","count":22,"share":0.9429859689817491,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9352782715343567},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.885971937963498,"p50":4},"value":94.2985968981749,"rest":96.60097172433498,"restNEff":25.291154469975393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"sex","level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","n":27,"nEff":25.291154469975393,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.033990282756649975,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.03692050004498908},{"option":"4","count":26,"share":0.96600971724335,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.963079499955011},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.9660097172433497,"p50":4},"value":96.60097172433498,"rest":94.2985968981749,"restNEff":21.661405617310855,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"urban","label":"miasto","n":31,"nEff":28.237152763538504,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":1,"share":0.0495842691321998,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.05368003706139609},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.026891482939844395,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.029112777623040976},{"option":"4","count":29,"share":0.923524247927956,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.9172071853155629},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.873939978795756,"p50":4},"value":92.35242479279556,"rest":99.99999999999999,"restNEff":18.007487489573453,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"settlement","level":"rural","label":"wieś","n":19,"nEff":18.007487489573453,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"4","count":19,"share":1,"confidenceWeightedShare":1},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":4,"p50":4},"value":99.99999999999999,"rest":92.35242479279556,"restNEff":28.237152763538504,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"18-24","label":"18–24 lata","n":5,"nEff":4.933402674837467,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":41.57443024876233,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"25-34","label":"25–34 lata","n":6,"nEff":5.50118601512303,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.94203253986286,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"35-44","label":"35–44 lata","n":9,"nEff":8.499675497553925,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.76726570069242,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"45-54","label":"45–54 lata","n":10,"nEff":9.171751566759658,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.114181396832535,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"55-64","label":"55–64 lata","n":8,"nEff":7.757392638934632,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.67330958698694,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age","level":"65+","label":"65 lat i więcej","n":12,"nEff":11.102803889789357,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.193717465699926,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","n":11,"nEff":10.005627152861296,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":36.23550433525026,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","n":19,"nEff":17.597067863762167,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.04272950172683289,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.04659539184235312},{"option":"4","count":18,"share":0.9572704982731669,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.953404608157647},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.9572704982731675,"p50":4},"value":95.72704982731669,"rest":95.1929712191538,"restNEff":28.634098917320017,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"age3","level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","n":20,"nEff":18.638909504587698,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"4","count":20,"share":1,"confidenceWeightedShare":1},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":4,"p50":4},"value":100.00000000000001,"rest":92.34504401759699,"restNEff":27.59586457466041,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"higher","label":"wyższe","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_vocational","label":"średnie zawodowe lub policealne","n":13,"nEff":12.505558234331227,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":33.80644967388635,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"secondary_general","label":"średnie ogólnokształcące","n":6,"nEff":5.732760407826953,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":40.4979240922072,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","n":11,"nEff":10.796699820945765,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":35.43476674951299,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education","level":"lower","label":"podstawowe lub gimnazjalne","n":10,"nEff":9.565745372506473,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":38.24511039126393,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"higher","label":"z wyższym wykształceniem","n":10,"nEff":9.756294018018465,"status":"insufficient_sample","options":[],"continuous":null,"value":null,"rest":null,"restNEff":37.37549563246413,"differsFromRest":false},{"axis":"education2","level":"other","label":"bez wyższego wykształcenia","n":40,"nEff":37.37549563246413,"status":"ok","options":[{"option":"1","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"2","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0},{"option":"3","count":1,"share":0.02198643079799313,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.02491985461041823},{"option":"4","count":39,"share":0.9780135692020069,"confidenceWeightedShare":0.975080145389582},{"option":"5","count":0,"share":0,"confidenceWeightedShare":0}],"continuous":{"mean":3.978013569202006,"p50":4},"value":97.80135692020069,"rest":null,"restNEff":9.756294018018465,"differsFromRest":false}],"weightingShift":{"measure":{"kind":"rating","option":"high"},"weighted":95.39535000000006,"unweighted":96,"equalGroups":null}}],"dissent":[{"subquestionId":"cpi_trend","position":"4.5 % rocznie","rationale":"Ceny w sklepach ciągle idą w górę i nie widać, żeby to miało się szybko zatrzymać na niskim poziomie. Uważam, że inflacja pozostanie odczuwalnym problemem przez wiele lat.","confidence":0.7,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:45-54|female|urban|secondary_vocational"},{"subquestionId":"cpi_trend","position":"4.5 % rocznie","rationale":"Ceny w sklepach ciągle rosną i nie widać, żeby miało się to szybko zmienić. Inflacja jest odczuwalna przy każdych zakupach.","confidence":0.6,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:18-24|male|rural|vocational"},{"subquestionId":"timing_crossing","position":"W latach 2036-2047","rationale":"Biorąc pod uwagę zapowiadane stopniowe podwyżki i prognozy, płaca może przekroczyć 6000 zł między 2036 a 2047 rokiem.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:25-34|female|urban|higher"},{"subquestionId":"timing_crossing","position":"W latach 2036-2047","rationale":"Biorąc pod uwagę prognozy płacy minimalnej i inflacji, przekroczenie 6000 zł wydaje się możliwe w tym okresie, ale nie wcześniej.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:45-54|male|urban|higher"},{"subquestionId":"adoption_of_euro","position":"75%","rationale":"Polska jest coraz bliżej przyjęcia euro, a proces ten jest wspierany przez unijne regulacje i politykę, więc prawdopodobieństwo jest wysokie.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:65+|male|urban|vocational"},{"subquestionId":"adoption_of_euro","position":"75%","rationale":"Polska prawdopodobnie przyjmie euro przed 2048, biorąc pod uwagę polityczne i ekonomiczne dążenia UE oraz integrację Polski.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:35-44|male|urban|secondary_vocational"},{"subquestionId":"drivers_of_growth","position":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","rationale":"Wzrost płacy minimalnej będzie głównie napędzany przez inflację i politykę, a także wzrost produktywności i regulacje UE.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:35-44|male|urban|lower"},{"subquestionId":"drivers_of_growth","position":"Skumulowana inflacja (CPI)","rationale":"Wzrost płacy minimalnej jest głównie napędzany przez inflację i politykę rządu, a regulacje UE mają mniejszy wpływ.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:55-64|male|urban|vocational"},{"subquestionId":"minimum_to_average_ratio","position":"3","rationale":"Przewiduję, że relacja ta będzie się zbliżała do 55%, ale raczej nie przekroczy tego progu trwale przed 2047 rokiem.","confidence":0.75,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:35-44|male|urban|secondary_vocational"},{"subquestionId":"minimum_to_average_ratio","position":"2","rationale":"Przewiduję, że wskaźnik ten może się zbliżyć do 55% do 2047 roku, ale raczej nie przekroczygo na długo, choć pewne jest, że będzie się zmieniał.","confidence":0.75,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:25-34|female|urban|higher"}],"audience":{"id":"pl-national","kind":"population","label":"Polska — ogół dorosłych","teryt":"00","frameVersion":"pl-2026-09","frameFetchedAt":"2026-09-14T08:13:16.741Z","attribution":"Dane: Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Bank Danych Lokalnych (bdl.stat.gov.pl), licencja CC BY 4.0","n":50,"nEff":46.230599095632485,"deff":1.081534762216041,"marginOfError":0.14412965090764793,"regions":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.725700569878871},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9063921239863104},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8581099219128276},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.580815283205746},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.8794606978592685},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.38913884762198},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.968274638530466},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.8455213757290734},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.563795111858072},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9936424157096675},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9996813977344328},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.87921881595021},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9037184074998894}]},"calibration":{"fixture":"pl-calibration-2023-sejm","frame":"pl-2026-09","measuredAt":"2026-09-14","n":2000,"seed":"turnout-final","language":"pl","maePp":9.81,"baselineMaePp":14.41,"betterOnItems":23,"worseOnItems":15,"tiedItems":0,"comparableItems":38,"directionAgreement":1,"directionContrasts":8,"directionBaseline":0,"declaredTurnout":0.855,"byFamily":{"głos":{"items":17,"maePp":9.19,"baselineMaePp":14.58,"betterOnItems":16},"frekwencja":{"items":17,"maePp":12.43,"baselineMaePp":11.79,"betterOnItems":3},"samoopis":{"items":4,"maePp":1.23,"baselineMaePp":24.87,"betterOnItems":4}},"claim":"panel-simulation","sources":["PKW, oficjalne wyniki wyborów do Sejmu 2023 (głosy oddane w Polsce)","Operat GUS/BDL, licencja CC BY 4.0"],"caveat":"To jest symulacja panelu, a nie szacunek opinii publicznej. Zmierzony średni błąd bezwzględny wobec opublikowanych wyników wyborów do Sejmu 2023 wynosi 9,8 punktu procentowego (9,2 pp dla deklaracji poparcia, 12,4 pp dla frekwencji). Panel modelowo szacuje frekwencję na 85,5% wobec 74,0% rzeczywistej."},"evidence":{"key":"b7602f740466ec4ee120838f29967f68e33bc526c2c64c80c4d0b103651c8b62","topic":"2047-6000-brutt-konc-minima-polsc-przekr-płac","region":"00","week":"2026-W38","fetchedAt":"2026-09-15T08:59:41.437Z","model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","engine":"exa","facts":[{"claim":"Od 1 stycznia 2026 roku minimalne wynagrodzenie za pracę w Polsce wynosi 4806 zł brutto.","date":"2026-09-15","sources":["https://www.rp.pl/praca-emerytury-i-renty/art45109061-minimum-4950-zl-brutto-od-1-stycznia-2027-r-jest-projekt-rozporzadzenia-ws-najnizszej-krajowej","https://bezprawnik.pl/wzrost-placy-minimalnej-w-2027/"]},{"claim":"Minimalna stawka godzinowa w 2026 roku wynosi 31,40 zł brutto.","date":"2026-09-15","sources":["https://www.rp.pl/praca-emerytury-i-renty/art45109061-minimum-4950-zl-brutto-od-1-stycznia-2027-r-jest-projekt-rozporzadzenia-ws-najnizszej-krajowej","https://biznet.com.pl/najnizsza-krajowa-2027-4950-zl-brutto-kalkulator-netto-zwiazki-5200/"]},{"claim":"Rządowy projekt rozporządzenia zakłada, że od 1 stycznia 2027 roku minimalne wynagrodzenie za pracę wyniesie 4950 zł brutto.","date":"2026-09-15","sources":["https://www.gov.pl/web/dialog/posiedzenie-zespolu-ds-budzetu-wynagrodzen-i-swiadczen-socjalnych57","https://www.rp.pl/praca-emerytury-i-renty/art45109061-minimum-4950-zl-brutto-od-1-stycznia-2027-r-jest-projekt-rozporzadzenia-ws-najnizszej-krajowej"]},{"claim":"Proponowana w rządowym projekcie minimalna stawka godzinowa na 2027 rok wynosi 32,30 zł.","date":"2026-09-15","sources":["https://www.gov.pl/web/dialog/posiedzenie-zespolu-ds-budzetu-wynagrodzen-i-swiadczen-socjalnych57","https://dziendobry.tvn.pl/styl-zycia/finanse-i-praca/placa-minimalna-2027-tyle-wyniesie-najnizsza-krajowa-i-stawka-godzinowa-st9180110"]},{"claim":"Symulacje oparte na założeniu 55% przeciętnego wynagrodzenia wskazują, że w 2030 roku płaca minimalna mogłaby teoretycznie wynieść około 6388 zł brutto.","date":"2026-09-15","sources":["https://warszawawpigulce.pl/placa-minimalna-moze-przekroczyc-6300-zl-resort-szykuje-nowa-zasade-ale-w-projekcie-jest-wazny-haczyk/","https://bezprawnik.pl/wzrost-placy-minimalnej-w-2027/"]},{"claim":"Prognozowane przeciętne wynagrodzenie w gospodarce narodowej na 2027 rok wynosi 9971 zł brutto.","date":"2026-09-15","sources":["https://www.gov.pl/web/dialog/posiedzenie-zespolu-ds-budzetu-wynagrodzen-i-swiadczen-socjalnych57","https://www.fakt.pl/pieniadze/placa-minimalna-w-2027-r-przekroczy-psychologiczny-pulap-znamy-rzadowe-prognozy/30lhg51"]}],"tokens":397,"costUsd":0.01081025,"latencyMs":10584,"cached":false},"webSentiment":{"summary":"brak_sygnalu","stance":"brak_sygnalu","sources":[],"observedAt":"2026-09-15"},"panel":{"requestedAgents":50,"respondedAgents":50,"failedAgents":0,"models":["google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","openai/gpt-4.1-nano"],"personas":["demo:18-24|male|rural|vocational","demo:35-44|male|urban|lower","demo:45-54|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|male|urban|vocational","demo:35-44|male|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|male|urban|vocational","demo:65+|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|female|rural|lower","demo:45-54|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|secondary_general","demo:45-54|male|urban|lower","demo:25-34|male|urban|secondary_general","demo:65+|male|urban|lower","demo:18-24|male|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:35-44|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:45-54|male|rural|vocational","demo:65+|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:18-24|male|urban|secondary_general","demo:25-34|female|urban|higher","demo:35-44|male|rural|higher","demo:45-54|male|urban|higher","demo:45-54|female|urban|vocational","demo:55-64|female|urban|lower","demo:65+|female|urban|higher","demo:55-64|male|rural|vocational","demo:18-24|female|urban|secondary_general","demo:35-44|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:18-24|male|rural|secondary_general","demo:35-44|female|urban|higher","demo:55-64|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|male|rural|lower","demo:45-54|male|rural|secondary_general","demo:35-44|male|urban|higher","demo:65+|male|urban|higher","demo:45-54|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|lower","demo:25-34|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:35-44|female|urban|vocational","demo:45-54|female|rural|higher","demo:65+|female|rural|lower","demo:25-34|female|rural|higher","demo:55-64|female|urban|vocational"],"seed":"99c3c386-6a4","tier":"cheap","costUsd":0.0588767,"durationMs":0,"llmCalls":0,"timings":{"decomposeMs":0,"castMs":0,"aggregateMs":0,"synthesizeMs":0}},"warnings":[],"composition":{"basis":"gus","claim":"panel-simulation","label":"dorośli mieszkańcy Polski","labelAcc":"dorosłych mieszkańców Polski","region":{"teryt":"00","name":"Polska"},"spec":null,"axes":[{"axis":"sex","label":"Płeć","levels":[{"level":"female","label":"kobiety","share":0.5236426800000004,"n":23},{"level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","share":0.4763573200000003,"n":27}]},{"axis":"age","label":"Wiek","levels":[{"level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","share":0.22259464000000007,"n":11},{"level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","share":0.37893070000000023,"n":19},{"level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","share":0.39847466000000015,"n":20}]},{"axis":"settlement","label":"Miejsce zamieszkania","levels":[{"level":"urban","label":"miasto","share":0.6021058800000003,"n":31},{"level":"rural","label":"wieś","share":0.39789412000000024,"n":19}]},{"axis":"education","label":"Wykształcenie","levels":[{"level":"higher","label":"wyższe","share":0.2635676000000001,"n":10},{"level":"secondary","label":"średnie","share":0.3749531400000002,"n":19},{"level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","share":0.2353684200000001,"n":11},{"level":"lower","label":"podstawowe","share":0.12611084000000006,"n":10}]}],"groups":[],"n":50,"nEff":46.230599095632485,"marginOfError":0.14412965090764793,"thresholds":{"minGroupNEff":15,"detectablePoints":35}}}