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Trudno im będzie utrzymać większość po tylu obietnicach, których nie spełnili.","confidence":0.7,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:45-54|female|rural|vocational","personaLabel":"45–54 lata, kobieta, wieś, wykształcenie zasadnicze zawodowe"},{"subquestionId":"pis_confederacy_coalition","position":"60%","rationale":"To wydaje się najbardziej prawdopodobny układ, jeśli PiS nie zdobędzie samodzielnej większości, bo inne partie nie chcą z nimi współpracować.","confidence":0.6,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:35-44|male|rural|secondary_vocational","personaLabel":"35–44 lata, mężczyzna, wieś, wykształcenie średnie zawodowe lub policealne"},{"subquestionId":"pis_confederacy_coalition","position":"60%","rationale":"To może być jedyna realna alternatywa, żeby odsunąć obecną koalicję od władzy, nawet jeśli te partie się różnią.","confidence":0.5,"model":"google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","personaId":"demo:55-64|male|rural|vocational","personaLabel":"55–64 lata, mężczyzna, wieś, wykształcenie zasadnicze zawodowe"},{"subquestionId":"economic_satisfaction_impact","position":"4,0/5","option":"4","rationale":"Gospodarka i inflacja będą miały duży wpływ na decyzje wyborców, szczególnie w kontekście kosztów życia.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:35-44|male|urban|secondary_general","personaLabel":"35–44 lata, mężczyzna, miasto, wykształcenie średnie ogólnokształcące"},{"subquestionId":"economic_satisfaction_impact","position":"4,0/5","option":"4","rationale":"Gospodarka i inflacja mają duży wpływ na nastroje wyborcze, szczególnie w kontekście obecnych wyzwań ekonomicznych.","confidence":0.8,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:65+|male|urban|secondary_general","personaLabel":"65 lat lub więcej, mężczyzna, miasto, wykształcenie średnie ogólnokształcące"},{"subquestionId":"voter_turnout_estimate","position":"55,0%","rationale":"Frekwencja zwykle jest wysoka, ale może się wahać w zależności od zaangażowania społecznego i sytuacji politycznej.","confidence":0.75,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:65+|female|rural|lower","personaLabel":"65 lat lub więcej, kobieta, wieś, wykształcenie podstawowe lub gimnazjalne"},{"subquestionId":"voter_turnout_estimate","position":"55,0%","rationale":"Przewiduję umiarkowaną frekwencję, zależną od zaangażowania wyborców i obecnych wydarzeń.","confidence":0.6,"model":"openai/gpt-4.1-nano","personaId":"demo:25-34|female|rural|secondary_vocational","personaLabel":"25–34 lata, kobieta, wieś, wykształcenie średnie zawodowe lub policealne"}],"audience":{"id":"pl-national","kind":"population","label":"Polska — ogół dorosłych","teryt":"00","frameVersion":"pl-2026-09","frameFetchedAt":"2026-09-14T08:13:16.741Z","attribution":"Dane: Główny Urząd Statystyczny, Bank Danych Lokalnych (bdl.stat.gov.pl), licencja CC BY 4.0","n":50,"nEff":45.8222091358089,"deff":1.091173929476182,"marginOfError":0.1447705031811571,"regions":[{"teryt":"02","name":"dolnośląskie","n":4,"nEff":3.469931728530724},{"teryt":"04","name":"kujawsko-pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.9478129894157843},{"teryt":"06","name":"lubelskie","n":3,"nEff":2.983435166391451},{"teryt":"08","name":"lubuskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"10","name":"łódzkie","n":3,"nEff":2.9167770113302205},{"teryt":"12","name":"małopolskie","n":4,"nEff":3.7864244373612284},{"teryt":"14","name":"mazowieckie","n":7,"nEff":6.652410395170347},{"teryt":"16","name":"opolskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"18","name":"podkarpackie","n":3,"nEff":2.5260529335066857},{"teryt":"20","name":"podlaskie","n":1,"nEff":1},{"teryt":"22","name":"pomorskie","n":3,"nEff":2.7924298364898275},{"teryt":"24","name":"śląskie","n":6,"nEff":5.9207315488349765},{"teryt":"26","name":"świętokrzyskie","n":2,"nEff":1.920209887161909},{"teryt":"28","name":"warmińsko-mazurskie","n":2,"nEff":1.9682654196782503},{"teryt":"30","name":"wielkopolskie","n":5,"nEff":4.59088378441043},{"teryt":"32","name":"zachodniopomorskie","n":2,"nEff":1.994778392694052}]},"calibration":{"fixture":"pl-calibration-2023-sejm","frame":"pl-2026-09","measuredAt":"2026-09-14","n":2000,"seed":"turnout-final","language":"pl","maePp":9.81,"baselineMaePp":14.41,"betterOnItems":23,"worseOnItems":15,"tiedItems":0,"comparableItems":38,"directionAgreement":1,"directionContrasts":8,"directionBaseline":0,"declaredTurnout":0.855,"byFamily":{"głos":{"items":17,"maePp":9.19,"baselineMaePp":14.58,"betterOnItems":16},"frekwencja":{"items":17,"maePp":12.43,"baselineMaePp":11.79,"betterOnItems":3},"samoopis":{"items":4,"maePp":1.23,"baselineMaePp":24.87,"betterOnItems":4}},"claim":"panel-simulation","sources":["PKW, oficjalne wyniki wyborów do Sejmu 2023 (głosy oddane w Polsce)","Operat GUS/BDL, licencja CC BY 4.0"],"caveat":"To jest symulacja panelu, a nie szacunek opinii publicznej. Zmierzony średni błąd bezwzględny wobec opublikowanych wyników wyborów do Sejmu 2023 wynosi 9,8 punktu procentowego (9,2 pp dla deklaracji poparcia, 12,4 pp dla frekwencji). Panel modelowo szacuje frekwencję na 85,5% wobec 74,0% rzeczywistej."},"evidence":null,"webSentiment":null,"panel":{"requestedAgents":50,"respondedAgents":50,"failedAgents":0,"models":["google/gemini-3.1-flash-lite","openai/gpt-4.1-nano"],"personas":["demo:18-24|male|urban|secondary_general","demo:35-44|male|urban|secondary_general","demo:45-54|female|urban|higher","demo:65+|male|urban|secondary_general","demo:35-44|male|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|male|urban|vocational","demo:65+|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:45-54|female|rural|higher","demo:65+|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:45-54|female|rural|vocational","demo:35-44|female|urban|higher","demo:55-64|female|urban|higher","demo:65+|female|rural|lower","demo:25-34|female|urban|higher","demo:35-44|female|rural|vocational","demo:55-64|male|rural|vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|lower","demo:25-34|male|urban|higher","demo:35-44|male|urban|higher","demo:45-54|male|rural|vocational","demo:65+|male|urban|vocational","demo:45-54|female|urban|vocational","demo:18-24|female|rural|higher","demo:35-44|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|female|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|higher","demo:45-54|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|male|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:65+|female|urban|vocational","demo:45-54|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|female|urban|vocational","demo:55-64|female|urban|secondary_vocational","demo:25-34|male|rural|secondary_vocational","demo:55-64|female|rural|secondary_general","demo:35-44|male|rural|lower","demo:65+|male|urban|lower"],"seed":"99d59a29-425","tier":"cheap","costUsd":0.05434365,"durationMs":0,"llmCalls":0,"timings":{"decomposeMs":0,"castMs":0,"aggregateMs":0,"synthesizeMs":0}},"warnings":[],"bearings":[{"subquestionId":"current_coalition_majority","direction":"against","text":"Rozmówcy dają 55% szans na utrzymanie większości przez obecną koalicję rządową, co osłabia prognozę wygranej opozycji."},{"subquestionId":"pis_confederacy_coalition","direction":"against","text":"Panel ocenia szanse na koalicję PiS i Konfederacji na 30%, co utrudnia przejęcie władzy przez zwycięski komitet."},{"subquestionId":"economic_satisfaction_impact","direction":"context","text":"Panel ocenia wagę sytuacji gospodarczej i inflacji na 4,8 na 5 punktów skali."},{"subquestionId":"voter_turnout_estimate","direction":"context","text":"Rozmówcy przewidują frekwencję wyborczą na poziomie 65%."},{"subquestionId":"key_electoral_drivers","direction":"context","text":"Dla 76% rozmówców to sytuacja gospodarcza i koszty życia będą najistotniejszym czynnikiem wpływającym na poparcie wyborcze."}],"composition":{"basis":"gus","claim":"panel-simulation","label":"dorośli mieszkańcy Polski","labelAcc":"dorosłych mieszkańców Polski","region":{"teryt":"00","name":"Polska"},"spec":null,"axes":[{"axis":"sex","label":"Płeć","levels":[{"level":"female","label":"kobiety","share":0.5236427095271458,"n":30},{"level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","share":0.4763572904728542,"n":20}]},{"axis":"age","label":"Wiek","levels":[{"level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","share":0.22259461554810767,"n":9},{"level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","share":0.37893067242138645,"n":20},{"level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","share":0.39847471203050566,"n":21}]},{"axis":"settlement","label":"Miejsce zamieszkania","levels":[{"level":"urban","label":"miasto","share":0.6021058679578826,"n":33},{"level":"rural","label":"wieś","share":0.3978941320421173,"n":17}]},{"axis":"education","label":"Wykształcenie","levels":[{"level":"higher","label":"wyższe","share":0.26356763472864725,"n":14},{"level":"secondary","label":"średnie","share":0.3749531125009377,"n":18},{"level":"vocational","label":"zasadnicze zawodowe","share":0.23536845529263092,"n":11},{"level":"lower","label":"podstawowe","share":0.12611079747778403,"n":7}]}],"groups":[],"n":50,"nEff":45.8222091358089,"marginOfError":0.1447705031811571,"thresholds":{"minGroupNEff":15,"detectablePoints":35}}}