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Zmierzony średni błąd bezwzględny wobec opublikowanych wyników wyborów do Sejmu 2023 wynosi 11,8 punktu procentowego (12,1 pp dla deklaracji poparcia, 14,2 pp dla frekwencji). Panel modelowo szacuje frekwencję na 86,9% wobec 74,0% rzeczywistej. Na 37 pytaniach o poglądy z sondaży CBOS z lat 2025–2026 średni błąd panelu wynosi 19,9 punktu procentowego wobec 21,8 pp panelu eksperckiego i 11,4 pp samego modelu zapytanego wprost; panel był bliżej wyniku sondażu w 17 z 37 pytań."},"evidence":null,"webSentiment":null,"composition":{"basis":"gus","claim":"panel-simulation","label":"dorośli mieszkańcy Polski","labelAcc":"dorosłych mieszkańców Polski","region":{"teryt":"00","name":"Polska"},"spec":null,"axes":[{"axis":"sex","label":"Płeć","levels":[{"level":"female","label":"kobiety","share":0.5236426876357313,"n":27},{"level":"male","label":"mężczyźni","share":0.4763573123642688,"n":23}]},{"axis":"age","label":"Wiek","levels":[{"level":"18-34","label":"18–34 lata","share":0.22259465774053427,"n":14},{"level":"35-54","label":"35–54 lata","share":0.37893064210693583,"n":19},{"level":"55+","label":"55 lat i więcej","share":0.39847470015253,"n":17}]},{"axis":"settlement","label":"Miejsce 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przewidują powrót na poziomie 40% uchodźców, co potwierdza, że większość z nich pozostanie za granicą."},{"subquestionId":"main_return_factor","direction":"context","text":"Według 98% rozmówców sytuacja bezpieczeństwa i trwałość pokoju to główny czynnik brany pod uwagę przy decyzji o powrocie."},{"subquestionId":"eu_integration_barrier","direction":"supports","text":"Panel ocenia siłę zakorzenienia w Unii Europejskiej na 4 na 5, co utrudnia decyzję o powrocie do kraju."},{"subquestionId":"eu_legal_status_change","direction":"against","text":"Panel daje 60% szans na wycofanie ochrony przez państwa unijne, co mogłoby wymusić wyjazdy do Ukrainy."}],"highlights":[{"emoji":"🚫","text":"100% rozmówców ocenia, że większość uchodźców nie powróci do Ukrainy.","subquestionId":"majority_return"},{"emoji":"⚓","text":"Wpływ integracji w UE oceniono wysoko, na 4 na 5.","subquestionId":"eu_integration_barrier"},{"emoji":"🛡️","text":"98% rozmówców uznaje trwałość pokoju i bezpieczeństwo za najważniejszy czynnik powrotu.","subquestionId":"main_return_factor"}]}